Olympics 2016 PC conversion percentages

Discussion in 'General Hockey Chit-Chat' started by UmpireHockey.com, Jan 30, 2018.

  1. UmpireHockey.com

    UmpireHockey.com FHF All Time Great

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    The only PC conversion percentages (success rates) I can find are from 2014 and earlier. I'm wondering if any one has seen for 2016 Olympics...or any other recent tournaments...for men and women (combined or separate). Right now, best data I can seem to find at international matches puts the success rate is somewhere between 20-30%.

    Thanks in advance...Cris
     
  2. F1-mania

    F1-mania FHF Legend

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    Not to piggyback on this thread, but on a similar vain, does anybody have any hockey related data sets? PCs being the most obvious example. Could make a very nice analysis piece that I'd be keen to do some work on. Obviously get shared on here if anybody had anything.
     
  3. redumpire

    redumpire FHF All Time Great
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    This isn't really terribly helpful, but on the England Hockey Altius RT match management system there are stats for every game that is played at which the system is used and at which the personnel are available to input the data. (This is currently only for EH tournaments and NOT for all national league games.)

    As an example at last year's end-of-season Men's Championship tournament, the following data is available.

    Semi 1: Wimbledon v Hampstead & Westminster. 5 PCs awarded. 2 converted.
    Semi 2: Holcombe v Surbiton. 8 PCs awarded. 2 converted.
    3/4 play-off: Hampstead & Westminster v Holcombe. No data on PCs awarded. 1 converted.
    Final: Wimbledon v Surbiton. 11 PCs awarded. 4 converted (including 3 in 8 minutes by Surbiton!).

    Total stats (ignoring 3/4 game): 24 PCs awarded. 8 converted. Conversion rate of 33.3%.

    [Click on each game to see the PC analysis on the main page; then click on the Goals tab to see the detail of each goal. You can also see stats on possession, circle entries, shots and strokes.]
     
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  4. Krebsy

    Krebsy FHF All Time Great

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    Doesn't exactly confirm the widely spread idea that PC = certain goal.
     
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  5. redumpire

    redumpire FHF All Time Great
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    Here are the equivalent figures for the women's games:

    Semi 1: Surbiton v University of Birmingham. 7 PCs awarded. 1 converted.
    Semi 2: Holcombe v East Grinstead. 8 PCs awarded. 1 converted.
    Final (there was no 3/4 game as there was no need to determine who finished third*): Surbiton v Holcombe. 8 PCs awarded.3 converted.

    Total stats: 23 PCs awarded. 5 converted. Conversion rate of 21.7%.

    * The same turned out to be true for the men's competition too, but that was not known at the time!
     
  6. Krebsy

    Krebsy FHF All Time Great

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    Does that mean that female GKs are better at saving drag-flicks?
     
  7. redumpire

    redumpire FHF All Time Great
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    That's certainly an entirely valid conclusion based on the limited stats presented.
     
  8. Krebsy

    Krebsy FHF All Time Great

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    In which case it is entirely concluded. Don't tell the manager of my mixed hockey team please.
     
  9. Krebsy

    Krebsy FHF All Time Great

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    I wonder if we have had a compliant conversation?
     
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  10. UmpireHockey.com

    UmpireHockey.com FHF All Time Great

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    So, let's pretend that those stats represent the global standard (go with me here) and say that women convert 25% of PC (or women gk are 75% successful) and that men convert 35% of the time.

    Let's also assume that U16-U19s are successful 15-20% of the time.

    Is that the right level of "penalty" for when a penalty corner is awarded? Should the average to be a 50%-75% success rate? To be clear, I don't mean to suggest that the attackers are under performing, but should the scales of justice be adjusted to make the penalty corner more of a penalty? Or, is it too 25-35% already too high of a penalty?

    Do you think we adjust the scales of justice by increasing or decreasing the number of defenders?

    I'd love to know the stats on circle penetrations leading to a goal. I bet it is around 5% of the time, which means getting a penalty corner is a significant jump. I'd love to know the success rate of shootouts. Would a shootout be a higher reward than a penalty corner? If so, maybe what was a penalty corner and a card should be a shootout. Or maybe teams should have the option of taking a shootout when awarded a penalty corner.

    Curious for other's thoughts on the above.
     
    #10 UmpireHockey.com, Jan 31, 2018
    Last edited: Jan 31, 2018
  11. Krebsy

    Krebsy FHF All Time Great

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    The other way to look at your stats is that you are receiving a penalty which gives you a 1-in-4 or 1-in-3 chance of getting a goal. That's quite a good penalty.

    I wonder if stats are possibly not the way we should be judging Penalty Corners but looking at what was happening when a penalty was awarded and comparing it with what happened afterwards.

    When a PC is awarded, either the attackers are in the circle with the ball and have a clear cut chance on goal and are stopped unfairly, therefore they receive, by way of redress, a clear cut chance on goal. So things are pretty equal.
    The alternative is that they attackers are faffing around and don't have much of a chance of a goal, but a penalty is earned and they go from not having much opportunity to being awarded a real opportunity, therefore they get a significant augmentation to their chances and are doing alright by it.

    Taking the view from the defender (also the team who are breaking the rules)
    Either they are defending in a situation where there is little chance of stopping a clear attempt on goal, and they are given an opportunity to re-group and present a structured defensive presence from the PC or they are doing OK but make a mistake and are punished by the umpire.
    I have been in the former situation many times and have breathed a sigh of relief when a PC is awarded, equally I have seen my defenders who are doing well take leave of their talent and give away a PC by being totally stupid.
    Either way, the former I am happy with (even relieved) and the latter is a defensive lapse, no one made us lapse.
     
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  12. redumpire

    redumpire FHF All Time Great
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    All available from the match reports I linked to above:

    Men's semi 1: 3 goals from 36 circle entries
    Men's semi 2: 5 / 43
    Men's final: 6 / 35 (excluding the shoot outs)
    Total: 14 / 114 = 12.3%

    Women's semi 1: 4 / 45
    Women's semi 2: 3 / 42
    Women's final: 4 / 21
    Total: 11 / 108 = 10.2%

    So your 5% guess is a bit out based on those stats, Cris...
     
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